NEW YORK (VINnews) — Dr. Yosef Sokol and a team of researchers have published a breakthrough study about marriage trends in the frum community.
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If the data they gathered is correct, it could have major repercussions about the definition of the Shidduch Crisis, as well as how to solve it. Some have questioned the results, methodology, and conclusion of Dr. Sokol and his team.
In this exclusive VIN Podcast interview, Dr Sokol addressed the following questions:
- Is there a disproportionate number of unmarried girls in the yeshiva world?
- If there are an equal number of unmarried boys and girls, why does it feel like there are so many more unmarried girls?
- How can Rabbi Sokol be certain that respondents represent the Charedi community and not Modern Orthodox?
- How does this data (if correct) change the definition of the shidduch crisis?
- What is the real cause of the crisis (in his opinion)?
- Why did he use “self-identification” to determine whether respondents are Charedi, rather than objective criteria such as lifestyle and which yeshiva they attend?
- Why did he choose the term “yeshiva orthodox”, rather than Charedi or yeshivish other terms?
- How can he be certain that his study reached all segments of the frum community, including Lakewood residents and people without internet?
- How many respondents were there from each community (eg. Lakewood, Brooklyn, Five Towns, Monsey, Teaneck, etc)
- Does his study have Rabbinic support?
- If his research is correct, how do we solve the shidduch crisis?
Dr. Sokol is an assistant professor at Touro, a licensed psychologist, and a Musmach of Yeshiva Bais Yosef in Brooklyn.
The crisis is only that yeshivish bucharim wait too long, until years of study with no jobs is over. And depending on matchmakers in this era only makes things worse. Go on dates and find the right person.
Dr Sokol’s study is unreliable because he is using the irrelevant self-identification terminology as opposed to a simple average couples’ age difference in a given sub-community, while ignoring the simple calculation below that clearly proves that in the “Lakewood freezer” sub-community about 15% of the girls have no mathematical possibility of getting married to a member of their sub-community while being at a fertile childbearing age.
No amount of PHD’s are enough to ignore the simple calculation below. There are 4 variables; these formulas are approximations that work only if the variables below did not change over the average life expectancy or last 3 to 4 generations:
A)ratio of boys over girls of the same age(usually there are about 5% more boys than girls born each year)
B)children born to an average woman in her lifetime
C)average of all women’s ages at birth
D)average boy to girl age difference at marriage, in years
Annual population growth % = (B/2)^(1/C)-1
in excel=POWER(B/2,1/C)-1
Optimal age difference in years to pair up all boys and girls = log_((B/2)^(1/C))(A)
in excel=LOG(A,POWER(B/2,1/C))
Percentage of girls without a mathematical possibility of marrying within their sub-community = ((B/2)^(1/C)-1)/A*D
in excel=(POWER(B/2,1/C)-1)/A*D
Example: if A=1.05, B=6, C=30, D=4.2 then:
Annual population growth % = (6/2)^(1/30)-1 = 3.73%
Age difference in years to pair up all boys and girls = log_((6/2)^(1/30))(1.05) = 1.33
That means that, in this example, in order to pair all, boys have to be 1 year and 4 months older than girls on average.
Percentage of girls without a mathematical possibility of marrying within their sub-community = ((6/2)^(1/30)-1)/1.05*4.2 = 14.92%
This is a SHAM!!!!
We all know that there’s a Shidduch crises in the Yeshivish world. The fact that there’s no Shidduch crises in the modern orthodox world is PROOF that changes need to be made in the Yeshivish world!!!!
The best fix would be is to make a rule that Bochurim must go to Israel at 21, so they can be back at a younger age. The second thing is to heed Daas Torah of all the Gedolim in Israel and abolish the BMG freezer!!!! There are currently over 500 Bochurim in the freezer most of them are over 23 years old. This FREEZER was instituted 25 years ago against the Daas Torah of all the Gedolim in Israel. Changes gotta be made.
It’s a money crisis. In the past generation, parents were able to help out their chickened more than in the current Kollel lifestyle generation, forcing girls to work, earn degrees and save up money before settling down. This can take up to five years…
i think this PHd is right and the evidence shows that there is no age gap theory. The solution is to make sure that girls get dates even if they are not the daughters of Aguda askanim.
Historically there have always been a mixed ratio. More females then men. This discrepancy Ratio does change but never equalizes