Will Iran Wait For US Election Results Before Attacking Israel?

JERUSALEM (VINnews) —Despite Iran’s efforts to downplay the Israeli attack on its military installations, new satellite images have revealed significant damage to two buildings at the Khojir missile production complex near Tehran, which had recently undergone expansion, according to a Ynet report.

Initially Iran claimed that Israel had launched a  “weak attack,” but as the scope of the damage became more apparent, Tehran’s officials issued belligerent threats against Israel, promising a “decisive and painful response.”

Reports about the timing of such a retaliatory strike have been conflicting however, with some suggest a response before the U.S. elections, while others indicate it might occur afterward, partly due to Iran’s concern that further regional tension could bolster former President Donald Trump’s election campaign.

The Washington Post cited a source close to the Israeli leadership, who claimed on Saturday that current intelligence points to Iran preparing an attack on Israel in the coming days. Additionally it was reported that Iran plans to close its airspace from 11/4 at 02:30 AM until 18:30 on 11/6, indicating a possible attack during the period of the election.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stated that they would take whatever actions are necessary to confront political or military arrogance, emphasizing that the Iranian people and officials will “never hesitate to confront the criminal mechanisms controlling the world order.” He warned that enemies, particularly the U.S. and Israel, should expect a harsh response for their actions against Iran and the resistance front.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards spokesman, Mohammad Ali Naeini, remarked that Israel believes Iran will not retaliate. He said the “Zionists think Iran is reluctant to enter into a direct conflict and that the Iranian people are weary of resistance and unwilling to engage in war with Israel”. He added that the response to the Israeli strike against Iran is inevitable, definitive, and beyond what the enemy expects.
Concurrently, the Pentagon announced an order to deploy additional forces to the Middle East, including ballistic missile destroyers, fighter squadrons, refueling aircraft, and several long-range B-52 bombers. These additional forces are expected to arrive in the region in the coming months, coinciding with the planned departure of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln.

This reinforcement comes as Iran’s threatens to strike Israel again, following the Israeli assault that disabled several air defense batteries and impacted Tehran’s ballistic missile production. American officials, speaking to the Wall Street Journal, explained that the damage might delay the production of solid-fuel missiles by a year or more. Regarding the S-300 air defense systems, which were completely destroyed, a security source indicated that repairs or replacements could take several months.

The Journal also noted that Israel’s response remained within the “red lines” defined by Washington. Over the past week, the U.S. has urged Iran not to launch an attack on Israel, with White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre making it clear that if Tehran decides to respond, the U.S. will stand by Israel and assist in its defense.

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller also addressed the issue, stating he could not predict Iran’s potential actions but said Tehran should not escalate the conflict. He did not respond to questions about whether Iran had communicated with Washington regarding a possible attack before the elections, saying he would not discuss communication between the two governments, whether real or imaginary. However, he underscored that Iran has been clearly warned not to escalate the conflict.

Despite American appeals, the New York Times reported that Ayatollah Khamenei instructed the country’s Supreme National Security Council to prepare for an attack against Israel. According to three informed Iranian sources, Khamenei made this decision after reviewing a detailed report from senior military commanders on the extent of the damage inflicted by the Israeli strike on Iran’s missile production capabilities, air defense systems around Tehran, energy infrastructure, and a key southern port.

The Times reported that Khamenei considered the scale of the Israeli strike and the number of casualties—at least four soldiers were killed—too significant to ignore, and he viewed inaction as an admission of defeat, according to the three sources. These sources spoke anonymously as they were not authorized to speak publicly. They added that military commanders are preparing a list of dozens of potential military targets within Israel.

Israel’s strike in Iran, launched in response to the barrage of ballistic missiles from Iran at the beginning of last month, marked Israel’s first-ever declared attack on Iran. Dozens of fighter jets were involved, significantly impairing the Islamic Republic’s air defense network and its capability to produce ballistic missiles.