NEW YORK – American political historian Allen Lichtman, often called the “Nostradamus” of U.S. elections for his remarkable record of predicting nine out of ten presidential races since 1984, was visibly shocked on Wednesday after realizing his forecast for the 2024 election missed the mark. Lichtman had predicted a victory for Kamala Harris, yet Donald Trump’s strong showing soon indicated otherwise.
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During a live stream, the 77-year-old professor, joined by his son Sam, reacted to the surprising outcome. As Pennsylvania was called for Trump, Sam voiced his own discouragement, admitting he’d “lost hope a little bit.” Lichtman, frustrated and visibly fatigued, said, “Good thing I have nothing to do tomorrow. And I’m not doing any interviews.”
Unlike Nate Silver, who will try to squirm out of why he didn’t see the election coming, I admit that I was wrong. I will assess the election and the keys on my live show this Thursday at 9 PM Eastern. @allanlichtmanyoutube.
— Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) November 6, 2024
Lichtman, a professor at American University and widely regarded as an authority on election predictions, relies on his self-developed “Keys to the White House” system. This model uses 13 indicators to assess which party is more likely to win. Based on these factors, Lichtman had believed Harris had an edge in eight categories, while Trump only had three.
As the live stream concluded, both Lichtmans reflected on what the results meant. Lichtman expressed deep concern, saying, “Oh, the democracy’s gone. Once democracy’s gone, it’s almost impossible to recover. The way to recover is by the dictators losing wars.”
Despite the somber mood, Sam offered a less dramatic perspective, hoping that Trump’s term would pass without issue. Lichtman added a final note on the importance of protecting democracy, calling it fragile and easily destructible, often from within.
Lichtman’s model has been highly regarded in political circles, but this surprising outcome highlights the challenges of election forecasting. As he ended the stream, he admitted the result was simply “unfathomable.”
Keys don’t decide elections – Hashem does!
It’s okay, he’ll be back in four years with no damage to his reputation. Because that’s what these option pundits are – professional useless people, who just talk for a living and make our lives stressful for our own entertainment.
His arrogance was his downfall, like all the wicked!!!
This Lichtman fellow ia having a sad sad day. To him Democracy means what the low life progressive are pushing for. The democrats of today are the lowest of the lowest they want zero law and order. Hundreds of retail shops closed because of open theft and no jail time for those criminals.These new type of democrats are against humanity in general. They are pushing that mankind to be like animals. The Dor Hambul and Sodom and Gomorrah is nothing compared to today’s liberal progressives. Good riddance
Nobody’s perfect but Hashem is! Mench tracht und G-tt lacht.
OMG!
Get over yourself!
Tim pool did a review of littmans Keys and determined that littmans missed up on the keys and acording to the keys TRUMP was the winner
this was like a month ago. It seemed that littman missed on his own keys to make the wrong person win like he could not see reality or was trying to push a falsehood into the office.
Well here is the thing, Lichtman has a good point but he is very subjective and bias. Lets break it down.
Proposition 2: No primary contest. You can’t really say that Harris had no contest so that helps her score. There was no primary here.
Proposition 3: Incumbent seeking re-election: Harris wasn’t a real incumbent
Proposition 5&6: Economy: Well Lichtman looked at data like GDP & Inflation being down. But part of the economy is how consumers feel. People just don’t loke paying $5 for a dozen eggs nor do we like paying 40% more tution that first hit us this year.
Proposition 7 : Major policy change . Turned on if there was a major chnage. he claimed that Biden’s chip act and infaltion reduction act were major changes. They weren’t
Proposition 8: Civil unrest: Free Palestine is an unrest
Proposition 9 &10 : Foreign or military failure and success. People view afghanstain as a failure in addition to overall middle east unrest
Proposition 12 Candidate charisma: This one is most laughable as Lichtman said Harris has charisma against Trump.
You see his ideas make sense but his subjectivity is off the charts
You where blinded by your own stupidity
And refused to watch shifting trends
Missed it is an understatement.
I kind of feel bad for him. The guy just watched his entire claim to fame, upon which his whole self-worth rests, go up in flames in front of his eyes. That has got to be soul-crushing.
hes owned by Soros
The two Allen’s got it wrong. Allen Dershowitz as well said on Monday that he predicts that Harris will win tomorrow- he made sure to say, not because I voted for her but I believe that she will win…well, we know how his prediction turned out there…
Don’t feel bad.
Nine out of eleven is pretty good too.
some one always misses the mark.
big deal.