By Rabbi Yair Hoffman
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At the heart of Jewish continuity lies a profound Mitzvah – one that has shaped our people’s destiny for millennia.
The Shulchan Aruch (Even Ha’ezer 1:8) codifies an important obligation based on the Talmudic discussion in Yevamos and the verse in Koheles (11:6): “Ba’boker zera es zarecha, v’la’erev al tanach yadecha” – “In the morning sow your seed, and in the evening do not hold back your hand.” This ruling establishes a fundamental obligation regarding family planning and demographics within Jewish communities.
The Gemara in Yevamos 62b expands on this concept, explaining that one who refrains from procreation is considered as if they have diminished the divine presence. The Rambam (Hilchos Ishus 15:16) further emphasizes this point, stating that even after fulfilling the basic mitzvah of pru u’rvu, one has an ongoing obligation of “la sheves yetzara” – populating the world. The Rama adds that one who continues to have children beyond the basic requirement is fulfilling the dictum of “ba’erev al tanach yadecha.”
Although the basic obligation of pru u’rvu – being fruitful and multiplying is fulfilled with having a boy and a girl – there is a further obligation to continue having children. The Talmud (Yevamos 63b) teaches that Rabbi Yehoshua maintained that if one had children in their youth, they should continue to have children in their old age, as one does not know which will succeed or whether both will be equally good.
Recent data from the Haredi Institute for Public Affairs reveals concerning trends that may indicate a weakening in the observance of this important halachic principle. Their comprehensive 2024 report shows the average haredi family size has declined to 6.1 children – a 43-year low. This represents a significant departure from historical norms within the community.
Other reports show that between 2003-2005, ultra-Orthodox women had an average of 7.5 live births. This number decreased to 6.5 births per woman by 2019-2021. For comparison, the fertility rate among other Jewish women in Israel during this period was considerably lower, averaging 2.5 children per woman. The fact that it is now down to 6.1 is indicative that the obligation is not being taken as seriously as in the past.
The demographic shifts appear to correlate with broader socioeconomic changes. The report indicates that 71% of the haredi population now uses the internet, nearly double the rate from 2014. Additionally, employment rates among young haredi men aged 20-24 have tripled since 2005, rising from 10% to 30%. These changes in lifestyle and exposure to secular influences may be contributing factors to the declining birthrates.
Economic pressures seem to play a significant role in this trend. The report shows that average apartment prices for haredi families have increased by 14% to NIS 1.6 million, while mortgage payments have risen 11% to NIS 3,840 monthly. These financial strains may be influencing family planning decisions, potentially at the expense of traditional halachic obligations.
The implications for future demographics are substantial. Previous projections of haredi population growth in Israel are being revised downward, with expectations now showing the community will comprise only 20-22% of Israel’s population by 2065, significantly lower than earlier estimates.
This trend raises important questions about the balance between perceived economic realities and halachic obligations. As Eli Paley, founder of the Institute, noted, these changes reflect “significant and profound changes in haredi society,” driven largely by economic pressures and contemporary challenges.
The data suggests a need for community leaders and poskim to address these developments and provide guidance on maintaining this important halachic obligation while navigating their apperception of modern economic challenges.
The author can be reached at [email protected]
Why is it automatically assumed that the lower birth rate is by choice? Maybe the Covid vaccines reduced fertility?
In any event reality always comes home at some point. Women are not machines. They cannot both be professionals earning high wages working long hours and also be pregnant, shop, cook, clean, make holidays, raise their kids and keep up. It’s a rare woman who is efficient and organized and strong enough to keep up with the intense and endless load.
And to do all that while supporting a learning husband (so basically running a single income home) and possibly being in poverty.
Women in the old times had more kids, but many of them did not work. Now they’re expected to work and expected to be the man and woman of the house.
This is the possible result
1. It’s a failure of our educational institutions: girls should graduate all highschool and seminary, learn practical child caring and home making skills, and be psychologically prepared to get married by their 18th birthday. Earlier marriages equal hidur pru urvu.
2. It’s a treason of our rich people, who care about their short term gain as opposed to a strategic investment to benefit the tzibur: just look at the ever rising arba minim and matzos prices(though if anything, a growing tzibur’s economy of scale should bring prices down), and just look where the real estate developers are building. Building up, the boropark style, doesn’t benefit the tzibur — quite the opposite; only a few unscrupulous individuals gain their blood money, while everyone else is suffering with traffic jams and high prices. On the other hand, building NEW communities provides cheaper homes and more breathing room for the tzibur. Which means that a family is more likely to survive on man’s income alone. Which means that a woman doesn’t need to work. Which means that she can recover more quickly between births.
3. It’s the idiotic money worship and emulating the rich people. Gone are the days when the frum oilom was content driving beaten down station wagons and living in basements first few years of marriage. Now everyone needs a million dollar home, two new fancy cars, and all bar mitzvos need to cost as much as chasunas used to cost before. This idiotic peer pressure pushes women to work more. It’s probably a reasonable estimate that each 10 weekly work hours over a woman’s fertile years translate in 1 less kid in her lifetime.
4. In the American yeshivish community it’s also the evil practice of bochurim marrying late. According to CHAZAL, ben shmone esre lechupa. Period. End of story. Don’t be smarter than CHAZAL. Does H and only H decides if a certain beggar is going to starve or not? Absolutely! But if a man takes away a survivable amount of bread from a group of beggars, it is guaranteed that some of them will die from starvation. This man is a murderer, nothing to discuss. Same for the evil 5 year gap, which results in 10-15% of American yeshivish girls, especially those whose fathers are not millionaires who can purchase a choson, either left out completely or marrying much later in life, which translates in wasting the very short fertile years.
“43-year low” means that these birth rates match those of 1981. What were the causes back then?
A more accurate projection of expected population growth would be the “rate of population growth” [Duh!]. The report did not seem to account for an increased frequency among the charedi population of families with younger parents. Younger women on average have less babies because they weren’t yet married long enough! Instead of monitoring births per woman, the data should report on births per woman per years having been married.
“The fact that it is now down to 6.1 is indicative that the obligation is not being taken as seriously as in the past.”
Or perhaps there is growing recognition that a woman is a human being, not a machine, and that each pregnancy and child takes a toll on her physically (as well as mentally and emotionally), especially since she is also likely responsible for supporting her family.
There are mitzvos other than peru u’revu, and a myopic focus on procreation can lead to serious neglect of many other mitzvos. Add to this that women are not mechuyav in this mitzvah, so perhaps it is in order that other considerations (including other mitzvos) are allowed when deciding on family size.
We need more religious Jews so we can takedown the lefty secular majority.
Mental health, cost of living, parental alienation, women in the workforce (9-4 jobs), fertility issues, eating disorders, social pressures, tuition, unhealthy foods, unhealthy coping mechanisms (alcohol, drugs, internet, gaming, iPhones) travel, lack of Parnassah and more Rabbanim permitting family planning all contribute to this result.
The statistics numbers might be different because of different sample identification. People who in the past would not be considered charedi, now are considered charedi. But among *real authentic* charedim the birth rate is the same -or even higher.
I have great respect for the writer. Why is there no mention of the covid vaccine and its possible contribution to lower fertility rates?
Interesting! Perhaps (1) Rebuilding the population (post holocaust) was a high priority that perhaps has become less emphasized (given the trade-off with other priorities) as time passes (since the holocaust) and as the frum population grows BH, Kein Yirbu. (2) Perhaps there is more of a focus on investing more energy in each child (or more time is needed per child, on average) than before (because life is more complex, e.g. the rising prevalence / awareness of mental health) at the expense of quantity of births. Also (3) standards of living have risen, and the willingness to maintain a very low-standard of living (e.g. # of kids per bedroom, expectations for financial support of married children such as with an apartment) may have become less tolerable/feasible.
Well, I guess the mitzvah of procreation takes precedent over family finances, mental health, dependence on others, extra burden on government resources and IDF protection. What shtus!
Look in the Aruch Hashulchan to see what writes about pru urvu. Very relevant. Many qualifications (or…heterim)
It’s said Chareidim gave lots of kids since Israel gives hormones to the chickens to grow faster do they can reproduce more
Then Chareidim estvthese chickens and reproduce more kids
Now there is a protest against giving the chickens these hormones
This leds chick’s
Less kids