The Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s Threats and Military Responses

by Shira Miller

Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz during periods of escalating tensions with Israel and Western nations, most recently as conflicts in the region have intensified.

This narrow 21-mile-wide waterway serves as the transit route for approximately 20% of global oil supplies, making any closure threat a matter of international concern with immediate implications for global energy markets.

Iran has developed a sophisticated array of anti-ship capabilities specifically designed to threaten maritime traffic in the strait. These include coastal artillery, anti-ship missiles, naval mines, fast attack craft, and submarines. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy operates numerous small, fast boats that could potentially swarm larger vessels, while Iran’s conventional navy maintains more traditional naval assets.

Israeli Military Capabilities Against Iranian Threats

Despite the considerable distance from Israeli territory, Israel does possess the military capabilities necessary to neutralize many of Iran’s anti-ship threats along the strait. Israeli Air Force assets, including F-35I Adir stealth fighters and F-15I Ra’am long-range strike aircraft, have the range and precision strike capabilities to target Iranian coastal defense installations, missile sites, and naval facilities.

Israel’s advanced intelligence gathering capabilities, including satellite surveillance and signals intelligence, would enable precise targeting of Iranian military assets. The Israeli military has demonstrated its ability to conduct long-range precision strikes against Iranian facilities in the past, suggesting that similar operations against strait-based threats would be technically feasible.

Optimal Israeli Strike Strategy

The most effective Israeli approach would likely involve a coordinated air campaign targeting Iran’s coastal defense infrastructure in phases. Initial strikes would focus on Iran’s most advanced anti-ship missile batteries, particularly those equipped with longer-range systems capable of reaching across the strait’s shipping lanes.

Israeli forces would prioritize targets using a layered approach: first neutralizing Iran’s air defense systems along the coast to establish air superiority, then systematically targeting missile launch sites, radar installations, and command and control centers. The precision-guided munitions in Israel’s arsenal, including the Delilah cruise missile and various GPS-guided bombs, would be particularly effective against hardened coastal installations.

Naval mine-laying capabilities would present a more complex challenge, as Israeli strikes would need to target not only mine storage facilities but also the small craft and submarines capable of deploying mines. This would require sustained air patrols and the ability to engage multiple small, fast-moving targets simultaneously.

Operational Challenges and Limitations

The primary constraint facing Israeli operations would be the extended supply lines and limited ability to maintain sustained operations at such distances from home bases. Israeli aircraft would require either aerial refueling capabilities or forward basing arrangements with regional allies to conduct effective operations over the strait.

Timing would be critical, as Iranian forces could potentially deploy mines or conduct spoiling attacks before Israeli strikes could neutralize all threats. The most effective Israeli strategy would therefore require rapid, simultaneous strikes across multiple target sets to prevent Iranian countermeasures.

Coordination with Allied Forces

While Israel possesses the capability to degrade Iranian threats to the strait, the most effective approach would involve coordination with U.S. and allied forces. Israeli intelligence and precision strike capabilities could complement American naval mine-clearing operations and sustained air presence in the region.

The combination of Israeli precision strikes against fixed installations with U.S. naval operations to clear mines and establish protected shipping corridors would provide the most comprehensive solution to reopening the strait. Regional allies with naval capabilities, particularly those with advanced mine countermeasure vessels, would be essential for maintaining long-term security of the shipping lanes.

Strategic Implications

Israeli involvement in operations to reopen the strait would carry significant diplomatic and strategic implications beyond the immediate military objectives. Such operations would demonstrate Israel’s capability to project power across the region while potentially complicating diplomatic efforts to contain the broader conflict.

The success of any Israeli operation would depend not only on military effectiveness but also on the ability to coordinate with international partners and manage the broader regional implications of direct Israeli military action against Iranian forces controlling this critical waterway.