Tight Race for New Jersey Governor: Ciattarelli Claims Momentum as Polls Show Sherrill Lead Narrowing

ROBBINSVILLE, NEW JERSEY (VINnews)-Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli expressed confidence in his matchup against Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill, highlighting strong early voting turnout among GOP voters while pushing a plan to repeal the state’s plastic bag ban, a policy he frames as an unnecessary burden on consumers.

“We’ve had more Republicans return vote-by-mail ballots than ever before,” Ciattarelli said in a campaign statement. “We’re matching them voter for voter here in the early voting. We’re in great shape. We’re heading for a victory.”

The race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy remains one of the nation’s most competitive off-year contests, with Election Day set for Nov. 4, 2025. Early in-person voting began Oct. 25 and continues through Nov. 3.

Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor who has represented New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District since 2019, secured the Democratic nomination in June with 34% of the primary vote, edging out challengers including Newark Mayor Ras Baraka and Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop.Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman and businessman who owns nursing homes and previously ran unsuccessfully against Murphy in 2021, won the GOP primary with nearly 68% of the vote over radio host Bill Spadea.

Recent polls show a tightening contest. A co/efficient survey released Wednesday had Sherrill at 48% and Ciattarelli at 47%, with 5% undecided.Earlier surveys, including one from Rutgers-Eagleton in late October, gave Sherrill a 5-point edge, 50%-45%. A RealClearPolitics polling average as of Oct. 30 pegs Sherrill’s lead at 3.7 points, 49%-45.3%.The race has drawn national attention, with endorsements from President Donald Trump for Ciattarelli and former President Barack Obama for Sherrill.

Democrats hold a registration advantage — more than 800,000 more registered voters than Republicans — but Ciattarelli is betting on turnout among independents and disaffected Democrats frustrated with high property taxes, affordability and everyday regulations.A Rutgers poll found 52% of likely voters view Trump as a “major factor” in their decision, with 78% of Democrats citing him.

Sherrill has countered by emphasizing her record on affordability, including plans to expand child care, codify abortion rights and tackle the state’s $10,000-plus average property tax bill — the nation’s highest.She has accused Ciattarelli of aligning too closely with Trump, calling him a “Trump lackey” in debates and ads. The candidates sparred in their final debate on Oct. 8 in New Brunswick, trading barbs on health care, education and public safety.

Republicans have not won a New Jersey gubernatorial race since Chris Christie’s 2013 victory, but the state has a history of competitive races, including Murphy’s narrow 2021 win over Ciattarelli by 3 points.e26f18 Analysts say the outcome could signal voter sentiment toward Trump’s second term early in its run.