Data Challenges “Pre-Mamdani Effect” on New Yorkers Fleeing to Florida

MIAMI — As New York City prepares for its mayoral election, speculation has swirled that progressive candidate Zohran Mamdani’s potential victory could trigger an exodus of wealthy New Yorkers to Florida. Miami realtors have seized on the idea, marketing luxury properties as “safe havens” for those looking to escape what they describe as higher taxes and less business-friendly conditions under a Mamdani administration.

Isaac Toledano, CEO of BH Group, which develops high-end condominiums including Ritz-Carlton residences in West Palm Beach, said his company recently signed contracts with New Yorkers exceeding $100 million — roughly double the same period last year. “A lot of Floridians are going to give Mamdani an award for being the best broker of the year,” Toledano joked, highlighting the perceived surge in interest.

But data cited by Financial Times experts paints a more cautious picture. Searches from Manhattan for South Florida homes on Realtor.com fell 5% year over year in the third quarter, while Zillow recorded a slight decline in page views for Miami properties from New York residents. Costar’s Juan Arias, National Director of US Industrial Analytics, said that any uptick in migration is likely “marginal” and that much of the perceived activity reflects marketing efforts by realtors rather than confirmed relocations.

Industry insiders note that some buyers may be acting preemptively. Sharon Navotny, senior vice president of new developments at Douglas Elliman, said that clients have accelerated purchases out of concern over a potential wave of New Yorkers. Edgardo Defortuna, CEO of Fortune Group, described a recent sale to a New Yorker seeking a “safety place” in Florida if Mamdani is elected.

The appeal of Miami continues to be tied to factors such as low taxes, warm weather, and an influx of high-profile investors in recent years, including hedge fund manager Ken Griffin and activist investor Carl Icahn. Still, analysts urge caution in interpreting the so-called “pre-Mamdani effect” as evidence of a mass migration. According to Financial Times experts, while interest among wealthy New Yorkers may have spiked following Mamdani’s primary win, actual relocation trends remain uncertain, and much of the narrative is shaped by realtor promotion rather than hard data.