Interview: Israeli Scholar And Expert Mordechai Kedar Warns Iran Entering Most Volatile Phase Amid Unrest

NEW YORK — An Israeli scholar who closely follows political trends in the Arab world says Iran may be approaching one of the most unstable moments in its modern history, as nationwide protests grow more frequent and pressure mounts on the country’s ruling clerics.

The warning was delivered by Mordechai Kedar during a wide-ranging interview on The Viktor Frankl Podcast, hosted by Rabbi Daniel Schonbuch, LMFT, alongside attorney Lori Fein.

Kedar said the current wave of unrest in Iran is different from earlier protest movements in both scope and intensity, driven by economic collapse, political repression and growing public despair.

“This is no longer just students or activists,” Kedar said. “You see merchants, women, professionals — all parts of society. Inflation affects everyone. People feel they have nothing left to lose.”

He said demonstrations that once erupted every few years are now occurring every few months, a pattern he described as a sign that internal pressure on the regime is accelerating.

“The intervals keep getting shorter,” Kedar said. “That tells you the system is under strain.”

Kedar pointed to the increasingly visible role of Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s former shah, who has issued repeated calls for protest. At the same time, he said, Iranian authorities have expanded internet shutdowns to prevent demonstrators from organizing.

Security forces, including the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij militia, have been given sweeping authority to suppress dissent, Kedar said, contributing to what human-rights groups describe as a rising death toll.

Despite the intensity of the unrest, Kedar cautioned against assuming an imminent collapse.

“Regimes like this don’t step aside,” he said. “You only know afterward which moment was decisive.”

He said a true turning point would likely come only if senior elements within Iran’s security establishment break with the leadership — potentially staging an internal coup to prevent a violent revolution.

But even that outcome carries serious risks, Kedar warned. Iran is a mosaic of ethnic and regional groups with long-standing grievances, and the fall of the central government could trigger fragmentation similar to what followed the collapse of Yugoslavia or the Soviet Union.

“If the regime falls, the state itself may fall with it,” he said.

Kedar said upheaval inside Iran could also reshape the broader Middle East, weakening Tehran’s network of regional allies, including Hamas, militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen.

Turning to Israel, he addressed recent reports of threatening messages sent to Israeli civilians, calling them psychological warfare but stressing that Israel remains alert.

“We are used to threats,” Kedar said. “We are here, and we are staying.”

Kedar added that even if Iran’s leadership survives the current unrest, its grip on power appears increasingly fragile.

“History shows that regimes built on fear and repression do not last forever,” he said.

Rabbi Daniel Schonbuch, LMFT, is a New York–based psychotherapist, author, and host of The Viktor Frankl Podcast, a rapidly growing platform examining psychology, culture, faith and geopolitics through the lens of meaning and moral clarity. He is the author of five books, including Viktor Frankl and the Psychology of the Soul, and founder of the Torah Psychology School of Coaching and Counseling. Follow him at rabbiforamerica.com.