ANALYSIS: Israeli Political Scenarios Depend On Who Leaves Sinking Ship First

JERUSALEM (VINnews) — Idit Silman’s sudden departure from the Israeli government has left it floundering, but this does not necessarily mean that new elections will be required in the near future. In order to understand the current situation, it is important to focus on the individuals who could shape Israel’s future in the coming weeks. Many of them seek to leave the “sinking ship” of the government, but do not want to fall in the water, i.e. lose all relevance in a future political reality.

• Ayelet Shaked – Israel’s Interior Minister and one of the architects of the Bennett-Lapid government has found herself in no-mans-land. Shaked has tied her political future to Bennett until now and cannot join Likud as Sara Netanyahu (a powerful force behind the Likud leader) has vetoed her presence there. Shaked is persona non grata with Religious Zionism as well. Had she been the one to topple the government instead of Silman, she would have been the darling of the right, but at present she is the big loser from Silman’s move. On Wednesday she tried to coordinated her next moves with other Yemina members Abir Kare and Nir Orbach but without Bennett in the hope that she will find some way to join the right-wing parties and form an alternative government.
• Nir Orbach – Realizing that the next person to leave the government effectively topples it, Orbach is using his status as a bargaining chip. On Thursday he issued an ultimatum to Prime Minister Bennett: Either promote three major right-wing requirements or I will leave. Orbach wants the child-care subsidies restored to Avreichim, the convening of the Council for Construction in Judea and Samaria (which authorizes new building in the region) and the law enabling the outposts in Judea and Samaria to be attached to electricity. If Bennett concedes, Orbach will have gained supporters in the Right Wing and if Bennett demurs, Orbach can leave with an ideological issue behind him – like Silman who left over the Chametz laws in hospitals.
• Benny Gantz – The Defense Minister has long expressed his dissatisfaction at his status in the current government. Despite having a bigger party than Bennett, he was sidelined by Bennett and Lapid when they formed their deal to create a joint government and tasked with the Ministry of Defense. Gantz has pretensions of being prime minister himself and may not have a better chance than now. The right-wing will do anything to dislodge Bennett, including even handing the leadership to Gantz, although he would find it hard to maintain his policies in a hardline right-wing government.
• Binyamin Netanyahu – Israel’s opposition leader has succeeded in shaking the current government but is no closer to forming a new government himself. The political impasse of the past few years has hardly changed – there are still 60 Knesset members opposed to Netanyahu’s serving as prime minister while he is being tried for bribery and corruption. If Netanyahu is willing to serve under Gantz or an alternative leader, the chances of an alternative government rise, but Netanyahu may opt for tempting more defectors from the government (Shaked and her duo) and calling for renewed elections as the government slips below 60 votes. Current polls see the Likud gaining ground but there may still be 60 members opposed to Netanyahu serving as prime minister, meaning that we are back to square one.