ANALYSIS: Israel’s Election Will Likely Be Determined By Arab Voter Turnout

JERUSALEM (VINnews) — Four elections in three years have already proved that the Israeli public is split almost uniformly down the middle, with left and right unable to attain a majority which will enable them to rule. In a despairing attempt to form a viable government in a country which has existential threats facing it from abroad and within, the Israeli political establishment has turned towards the Arab parties to assist in governing the country. Both right and left flirted with the Ra’am party in 2021, with Naftali Bennett finally signing a deal with leader Mansour Abbas to form a historic Jewish-Arab alliance for the first time in Israel’s history.

The deal proved to be a disaster for both sides. Bennett’s right-wing party split over the controversial government, with maverick Amichai Chikli leaving immediately and other MKs following suit within a year. Bennett’s political career has ended in ignominy, with critics from both left and right for his ill-fated attempt to rule over the most diverse coalition in Israel’s history and his defection from the right wing to achieve power.

Abbas fueled hopes in the Arab community for equality and tougher treatment of violence and crime but those hopes have been dashed by the speedy dissolution of the government and the feeling that Abbas has had to degrade himself to achieve political success. The continued violence and criminal activity and the lack of real change in the Arab villages and towns despite large budget allocations has led to a sense of disillusionment from political parties at the national level.

The Arab community numbers 2 million people but their political representation has gone down in the last two years from a peak of 15 seats to just 10 seats in the current coalition. By comparison, the chareidi community which is about 1.2 million has succeeded in sending 16 representatives to the Knesset. Both communities have subgroups- estimated at 1.5 seats-  which vote for other parties such as Likud (Arabs) and Religious Zionism (chareidi)

The key difference is in voter turnouts. Whereas the chareidi community has a solid 75% turnout in most elections, the Arab vote has varied sharply. In the 2020 election, when 63% of Arabs showed up and most supported a Joint list, the Arab parties numbered 15 seats. In 2021 just 44% showed up and the representation went to 10 seats. In the current election the Arab parties have split into three, with Balad, Chadash-Ta’al and Ra’am competing for the electorate. Polls predict that all three parties are scraping the electoral threshold, with Balad below the threshold and the other parties dangerously close to it. Thus, despite a possible higher turnout for Tuesday’s elections which is currently estimated at 50%, the Arab parties could see themselves with just two parties or even one party in the next Knesset, which would mean Netanyahu could easily form a “super-right-wing” government.

Conversely, the Arab voters could flock to the polling booths and all three parties would enter the Knesset. In such a scenario both right and left would try to woo them to be part of the coalition but since both Hadash-Taal and Balad are simply too extreme and anti-nationalist even for the center-left parties, the likely result of this would be yet a sixth election – and more political chaos in Israel.