Albany, NY – Can Gov. David Paterson save himself? That is the question on the lips of the city’s power elite, as Democratic leaders and union officials signal that they will find another candidate for governor if the incumbent does not lift his approval rating soon.
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The answer, according to political experts, is almost certainly no.
The governor’s poll numbers have been dreadful for six months, a sign that public opinion is solidifying. Barely one in five voters think he’s doing a good job. Pollsters, campaign operatives and academics cannot recall a politician rescuing himself from such a predicament, let alone one with Mr. Paterson’s shortcomings.
“Has anybody ever come back from this low? Probably. But I can’t think of any,” says Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute and a former political reporter.
George Pataki and Brendan Byrne, former governors of New York and New Jersey, were able to rebuild their images after taking hits, the pollster says, but they were never as unpopular as Mr. Paterson. Former mayor Rudy Giuliani’s sagging rating shot up after Sept. 11, but Mr. Carroll notes, “It’s unlikely that anything as dramatic as that happens. History says those lousy numbers doom you.”
Mr. Paterson’s popularity started slipping late last year when the public began to see him as disorganized and ineffective. While potential successor Andrew Cuomo was compiling an impressive, scandal-free record as state attorney general, Mr. Paterson was portrayed as indecisive, lazy and frivolous. Between that and his aides anonymously trashing U.S. Senate hopeful Caroline Kennedy, his approval rating plunged 40 points.
He’s trying to fight back. Recently, Mr. Paterson helped his public standing by berating state senators during a month-long period of gridlock. But he made enemies of 32 Democratic senators, notably the African-Americans, who had been among his few remaining supporters. Last week, when publicly asked if Mr. Paterson would run for re-election, state Sen. Eric Adams, D-Brooklyn, bluntly replied, “I hope not.”
Mr. Paterson is struggling to find other ways to show leadership. Last week, he threatened to oust developer Larry Silverstein from the World Trade Center site, a dubious legal strategy that promptly hardened positions on all sides. Last month, he named a new Metropolitan Transportation Authority chief, but Jay Walder’s confirmation is being held up by the governor’s new Senate enemies. He has also been doling out federal stimulus money across the state.
Budget negotiations loom
Next month, Mr. Paterson will try to plug a state deficit that has ballooned past $2 billion since he approved a record-high $131.8 billion budget in April. The governor needs lawmakers’ consent to cut health care and education, the largest chunks of state spending.
“It will be really difficult for the governor to overcome the mistakes that have already been made, given the fractious nature of the Legislature and because people don’t see him as the strong leader who can get us out of this fiscal crisis,” says Richard Lipsky, a lobbyist for small business.
Mr. Paterson was an obscure politician when he inherited the governorship from Eliot Spitzer in March 2008. “If you’re relatively unknown and you start off badly, it’s really hard to recover,” says Jeffrey Stonecash, who teaches political science at Syracuse University. “He’d have to create a whole new image.”
Mr. Stonecash says the governor’s opportunities to do that will be meager. “The only thing I could imagine that could help him is if the economy really turns around in the next year,” he says.
That cannot happen soon enough, since Senate Democrats, unions and other groups are itching to replace Mr. Paterson on the 2010 Democratic ticket with Mr. Cuomo. They worry about losing control of the executive branch and of the Senate to Republicans, especially if Mr. Giuliani runs for governor.
Mr. Cuomo has raised more than $10 million, twice as much as Mr. Paterson, but has resisted challenging his fellow Democrat, which would be a breach of party etiquette.
Insiders say Mr. Giuliani would probably defeat Mr. Paterson but has not committed to running because that would prompt Democrats to usher their weak incumbent aside in favor of Mr. Cuomo. Polls show Mr. Cuomo would defeat Mr. Giuliani, who prefers to run only if he is likely to win.
“Giuliani, I think, won’t run if Cuomo is his opponent,” says a Democratic operative, noting that the former mayor’s flameout in the presidential race dimmed the luster on his consulting business and law firm. “The last thing he needs for his businesses is another lost campaign.”
That leaves a scenario in which Mr. Paterson survives—if Messrs. Cuomo and Giuliani swerve aside. To just stand there is a lousy option, but perhaps Mr. Paterson’s only one.
“I don’t think he has a place to go,” one lobbyist says. “No one is taking him seriously, and they don’t see him as having the power to do anything. And they’re right.”
if you look at the picture , do you realy think that anyone in the background could realy beat a real good republican who has a great message and knocks everything that govonour paterson has done untill now.