Guide For The Perplexed: Israel’s Fourth Election In Two Years

JERUSALEM (VINnews) — In a little more than a month, just days before Seder night, Israel will for the fourth time in two years being going to elections. In a political system which has gone haywire, it is important to understand the reason for the current upheaval and whether this fourth election will put an end to the impasse or merely continue the same routine of previous elections.

In Israel, small parties can survive because the system allows for representation in the Knesset even if one has a small share of the vote. In previous times, the minimum electoral threshold was 2%, meaning that small parties with only 2-3 of the 120 MKs were represented and had political clout. However a few years ago the Knesset adopted a minimum of 3.25% of valid votes in order to be eligible for representation, which means that those who have less than 4 MKs will not be represented.

In the April 2019 elections, Naftali Bennett’s new party Yamina received 3.24% of the valid votes, missing entering the Knesset by just 1500 votes. This led to a 60-60 impasse between the two major blocs in the Knesset, which could have been solved if Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu party had entered the coalition. However Liberman, who was once Netanyahu’s right-hand man and entered politics in his wake, detests Netanyahu and the chareidi parties so much that he was not willing to sit in such a coalition, preferring to send the country to second elections. He and many others thought that Netanyahu, beset by legal issues and under pressure to resign, would not survive another election.

However this was not to be. Instead, both left and right-wing blocs received less than 60 seats, with the Arab party’s 13 seats tipping the balance. Since nobody wished to form a government with the anti-Zionist Arab parties or rely on their support, there was no possibility of forming an effective government and the Knesset once again dissolved quickly, hoping to reach some resolution in the third elections. Yet even here the same impasse continued, with no side able to reach 61 MKs.

With no other options left, coronavirus raging in the country and after three exhausting elections, Benny Gantz, the leader of Blue And White, agreed to sit with Binyamin Netanyahu in a joint coalition despite having promised voters that he would not team up with Netanyahu. Gantz split with colleagues Moshe Yaalon and Yair Lapid over his decision and in the end it proved his political downfall. Netanyahu persuaded him to take second place in the rotation of prime minister and the two barely succeeded in working in tandem during the difficult months of late 2020. Gantz’s political about turn cost him the support of the left and center-left who are set on replacing Netanyahu in whatever manner possible, and numerous members of Blue and White abandoned the party in recent months, leaving it precariously around the electoral threshold.

The current election was called since the government was hopelessly stalled and could not even pass a budget. Yet despite almost daily demonstrations outside the prime minister’s residence calling for him to step down, and despite even close allies like Gidon Sa’ar and Zev Elkin leaving Netanyahu to form a new right-wing party, New Hope, the prime minister still looks set to lead the largest party in the Knesset in the coming elections. Simply put, Netanyahu’s power base remains committed and does not believe the media hype regarding the prime minister’s alleged crimes and misdemeanors.

Netanyahu’s main foes Lapid, Liberman and Sa’ar may muster more votes than the Likud between them but even if they are joined by Labor they will not have enough votes to oust the prime minister. If however Naftali Bennett’s Yamina party will join them, he may prove to be a gamechanger, but this is an unlikely scenario. Bennett, who has not hidden his wish to be prime minister, is not likely to join with the left-wing Labor, the anti-chareidi Liberman and the left-leaning Lapid and would prefer to join with the Likud and chareidi parties unless the anti-Bibi parties can prevent the formation of such a government. At present the political impasse remains a possibility, but if the pro-Bibi parties can pass 61 seats with Bennett, a narrow right-wing government would be the most likely solution to Israel’s political instability.

There is also a remarkable new development within the Arab sector. The united Arab list has split apart, with the Ra’am faction led by Mansour Abbas leaving to form a party which says it will collaborate with the Likud in order to address longstanding issues like crime and housing in Israel’s Arab community, despite the political differences between the two parties. Abbas has emerged as a pragmatic Arab politician willing to work with the right wing to promote the agenda of Arab Israelis – a far cry from the other Arab politicians who mainly express discontent over Israeli-Palestinian issues. Abbas may also prove a gamechanger in the coming elections, as he too could help perpetuate Netanyahu’s leadership, which has so far stretched for 12 consecutive years in Israel.