NEW YORK (VINnews) — Dr. Yosef Sokol recently published a breakthrough study about trends of shidduchim and marriage in the frum community. If his data is accurate, it could have a huge impact on how we understand and hopefully solve the Shidduch Crisis.
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Recently, Dr. Sokol appeared on the VIN Podcast to discuss his research and some of the challenges he faced trying to ensure the accuracy of his data.
When asked how he concluded that self-identification is the best approach to determine which group respondents belong to, as opposed to some objective criteria, he replied, “It’s very hard to come up with objective criteria to classify people as Modern Orthodox (MO) or Yeshiva Orthodox (YO). As of now, the best criteria we have is [self] identification – what group do they feel they are connected to/consider themselves part of? So we came up with a basic list – Chassidish, Chabad/Lubavitch, MO, YO, not Orthodox.”
SEE THE CLIP:
He continued, “We also asked if they were Ashkenaz/Sefard. Overall, we asked for enough information to get a sense of which community and what they were (raised, current) – so people selecting the options that indicated they were raised YO and are currently YO is probably the closest you can get to assume they are in that community.
“While the other categories weren’t very difficult, we struggled with what name to use for the Yeshiva community. We considered a lot of options including Yeshivish, Yeshiva world, and Chareidi but each had its problems. For instance, many people consider Chareidi to be a culture in Israel and not applicable to people in the USA. In addition, people can not consider themselves Yeshivish but still be part of the overall YO community. So we choose YO as a broad term and so far everyone was able to fill out the survey.
“Regarding whether we could make this estimation by which institution they attended, we considered that, but it got very complicated and not as reliable as you might think. For example, where do you put the line? BMG is YO, YU is MO, but for many institutions in between these two, the lines get a little blurry and we didn’t want to leave all those people out. In addition, many people attend multiple institutions with some people even attending both BMG and YU at different times in their life.”
In addition, Dr. Sokol was asked, rather than taking a survey, why not take lists from high schools, and seminaries, and then match up the data?
He replied, “We tried but were unable to get lists from high schools, etc., for various reasons. One issue was that it was very hard to get enough high school or seminaries on board, and getting yeshivos’ lists that allowed us to contact people from years ago was even more difficult. It seems that there’s less keeping track of people after yeshiva to make sure the contact information is current. Of course, we can’t just look at girls without boys. If someone can get enough backing and resources to use this method, that would be wonderful.“
There is only one correct way to do this study:
1. Estimate which sub community is affected by the combination of the 5 year age gap and 4% annual growth, id est the yeshivish of the Lakewood-persuasion. Concentrate all research on this sub community; there may be a few gray areas when determining a definition of this sub community, but overall it’s pretty clearcut to those that are part of the frum community. Obviously no one claims that there’s a man-made age-gap crisis in other sub communities, at least not to such an extent; so why try selling us a used car by averaging out the relevant statistics among the non relevant?!
2. Determine which schools and seminaries service the targeted sub community. Obtain their graduation lists for the last 20 years. Proceed contacting these graduates with these minimal number of questions: did you ever get married, what age were you when married a first time, did you marry a man from your sub community – determined by being in sync with your school and seminary hashkafos, what was your husband’s age when you got married.
Obviously, such an approach requires an intimate knowledge of the hashkafos, the inner politics and the schools situation. Also, it might take a significant effort to obtain the graduation lists. However, it is doable.
That’s it. No need to shine a light where you didn’t lose your keys. Note to self: when making such a study, hire an auditor, an actuary, a fifth grade math teacher, anybody but a psychology phd.
The simple answer is because shidduchim are complicated and within the same community there are so so many variables that you cannot apply the same reasoning to tow different girls or boys. Chazal even tell us that for Hashem kasha zevugin k’krias yam suf. we cannot solve it, we must do our hishtadlus and daven for klal yisroel.
Many modern guys don’t want to get married until they are in their 30s and yeshivish guys are demanding at least $1500 a month for 7 years from girls whose fathers are Rebbes in Yeshiva. It is disgusting to ask a Rebbe” to sell his daughter. “ The last generation of men who learned and worked are truly Tzadikim.I pity girls who are dating today. The yeshivish guys cannot take care of themselves and certainly cannot support their wives or children.They are grown up babies who are demanding and feel entitled. I would rather remain single than marry a “ Give me Machine.” Girls – marry guys who works so you can stay home be the Akeres Habais, raise your children, and study Torah in your spare time!! Just like Sara, Rivka Rachel, and Leah our heroines.
Interesting to see some of the challenges along the way. This helps me understand why it took so long for someone to collect solid data on the shidduch crisis. I’m happy he stuck with the project. The study produced some great insights into this issue.
gary barnet has the data , & has the trust of orgs. like torah umesorah, bmg etc… and bh has the money , i know dr sokol has met , addiionally mr pogrow has invested heavily time , effort & money… lets hear from them
The Data proves no age gap theory. It’s all a myth pushed by those with a feminist agenda men always married younger women