EXPLAINER: Ukraine Crisis – Why is Putin invading now?

(To listen to Yaakov M’s full analysis about the Ukraine crisis, click here.)

Why is Putin invading Ukraine?

Vladimir Putin is on a crusade to rebuild the former Soviet Union. In a sense, Putin believes that the old regime is still intact, and the downfall of Communism was merely a hiccup. (Like most dictators, he is delusional about his empire.)

He’s described the collapse of the Soviet Union as the “disintegration of historical Russia” and considers Ukraine’s leaders as running an “anti-Russian project”. He has said that Ukraine and Russia are one country.

It’s important to understand Putin’s psyche, to recognize his true motives. Putin is a narcissistic sociopathic megalomaniac. He has poisoned political enemies with toxic nerve gas. He used his own daughter as a guinea pig for the Russian Covid vaccine. He dissolved the Russian parliament and altered the constitution, so that he could be a lifelong dictator.

Putin is obsessed with, well…Putin. He craves the approval of his citizens, taking photo ops of himself shirtless on horseback and flying a hang glider.

It’s hard to comprehend, yet many Russian citizens worship him, and soak up his bogus vicious propaganda against the United States.

(To listen to Yaakov M’s full analysis about the Ukraine crisis, click here.)

What is Putin’s official diplomatic premise for invading Ukraine?

Often when a crazy dictator does something bad, the reason he gives is NOT his true motivation. This situation is no exception.

Like many aggressive dictators, Putin claims that he is acting in self-defense. Ukraine has been propped up militarily by NATO and the U.S., under the Obama, Trump, and now Biden administrations. Ukraine has become “too friendly” with NATO for Putin’s taste.

Putin’s logic is that if Russia decided to build up an arsenal of troops and weapons at the Mexican or Canadian border with the US, we would not sit idly by. He believes that he has the same right to protect his territory.

In addition, he says that Ukrainian citizens in the east are cultural Russians, and as such, those territories rightfully belong to him.

Putin has also demanded a guarantee that Ukraine will never become part of NATO–but of course he is not going to get such an assurance, and he knows it.

Last year President Putin wrote a long piece describing Russians and Ukrainians as “one nation”. His strategy all along has been to position Russia as a victim, and claim that he is entitled to annex Ukraine in order to secure the Russians from the imperialist western countries.

Why is this happening now?

A strong case can be made that Putin is taking advantage of a lack of leadership in the White House.

Unlike President Trump who effectively canceled the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and thus crushed Putin’s hope of becoming the number-one energy supplier in Europe, President Biden removed sanctions and allowed the pipeline to be completed (while hurting energy suppliers in the US). This gave Putin immense leverage over Germany and the rest of the EU, and will likely pump billions of dollars a month into Russia’s pockets.

For months, Putin has been amassing about 150,000 troops on the Ukraine border, plus a massive amount of tanks and weapons. Yet the Biden administration has refused to impose sanctions. In a bizarre statement, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that there will be no sanctions “until the bombs are being dropped” on Ukraine. Jen Psaki argued that if we impose sanctions before an invasion takes place, that will somehow take away our leverage.

(Evidently Psaki does not understand the concept of sanctions. By freezing assets, you cripple the Russians economically, and then you only unfreeze the assets if they agree to withdraw. The leverage does not “expire”, it gets stronger. If President Regan had used the Biden approach on the Soviets, we would all be speaking Russian right now.)

In addition, Biden announced during a press conference that he would not retaliate against Putin, even if there was a “minor incursion” into Ukraine. Even if he misspoke, the message was loud and clear, and consistent with the passive foreign policy approach that Biden has taken on every issue.

Biden gave Russia added leverage by announcing that he would not send troops into Ukraine, presumably under any circumstances. Even if that is sound policy, the President should know better than to give away our secrets, which only empowers Putin and weakens our position. We should leave him guessing about our strategy.

All this has given Putin a golden opportunity. The Western World, led by Biden, has sent a clear message that Putin can pretty much do what he wants, and likely face minimal consequences, other than a possible token round of sanctions.

Whatever Putin’s end game is, he is going to push as hard as he can and squeeze as much as possible, knowing that our current administration is no match for him.